Friday, October 8, 2010
Snipping at Spending
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Looking at the Economy
Lots of discussion about the economy; is it good or is it bad, are we heading in the right direction or are we heading in the wrong direction, and last but certainly not least, no matter whether it is good or bad, right or wrong direction, how long can we expect the current situation to last? Depending on who you talk to you will get as many answers as you have people to talk with. Probably the 4 most important indicators are inflation, jobless claims, unemployment percentage and housing (starts and foreclosures). Let’s, in brief, look at each one of these indicators.
Inflation risk: in the short term (5 yrs out) the risk of deflation is probably much more significant than inflation. The reason is that we are a credit based economy; everyone borrows money, individuals, businesses, the government, everyone does it. Credit is currently plunging meaning that businesses won’t expand and hire, individuals don’t use their credit cards or buy houses and cars therefore business don’t sell as much and must lay off people, and the government gets less revenue to spend thus those in government jobs or government contracts get their benefits and pay cut or they get terminated. All of this effects prices and causes deflation. Read Mish “Inflation Expectation Noise” at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/inflation-expectation-noise.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher.
Unemployment claims: claims are down about 11,000 from a 4 week moving average but because of their volatility it is better to look at moving averages. The 4 week average is still close to the peak compared to the last two recession telling us that there is a persistent weakness. There has been no improvement for the last 10 months excepts for the fake numbers that the Obama administration is putting out. No one hiring because there is no consistency in the Obama government; no one knows what he will do next and therefore no one is willing to risk what capital they have. Over the next 12 months watch for local, state, and federal employee layoffs or at least cut back in benefits. They have been out pacing the private sector but this will soon come to an end. Retail sales have been improving at a very low rate. Holidays sales this year could turn out to be a disaster for retailing. Thanksgiving is late this year cutting the holiday shopping season short. Christmas day is on Saturday and this is never good. All this is bad news for employment figures. Read for a complete discussion: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/weekly-claims-drop-to-445000-4-week.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
Housing numbers: nothing but bad news here; the projected foreclosure rate is expected to be 20% for the coming year. What more do you need to know.
Unemployment rate: recent Gallup survey shows that unemployment jumped from 9.4 to 10.1% in September. Couple this with the underemployment rate of 18.8% and you have people who are in real financial difficulties. Gallop concludes the following: Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests. http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx
Again, what more do we need to know before we realize that we are in big trouble. Who do we blame for this? Rush Limbaugh says it is our “Jackass” president, B.H. Obama; that he is an economic illiterate, or that he is doing this intentionally because he is a Marxist anti-capitalist. I don’t know about all of this; but I can be certain in saying he is doing nothing to help the situation. How long can you expect the bad to hang around; the optimists are saying 5 years, the pessimists say it could be 10 years or longer; that gives you an average of 7.5 years or longer. Can you survive that long?
Have A Great Day
Skandalon
Follow My Blog at http://skandalonlibertas.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
The Koran Teaches What?
What I want to tell the judge is simple and to the point. Shahzad knows the Koran backwards and forwards; he know what it says and he knows what it means and his intent was to live by what it says, “kill the infidel.” Does the judge really think that Shahzad will gain new insights in how to get along with his fellow man by continuing his studies in the Koran? Does she feel that deep down inside of Shahzad there is the heart of a good man and if he will reflect on the Koran that one day he will see the light? I don’t know the judge; but I can tell you this, she doesn’t think for one minute that Shahzad will ever be a changed man; she thinks, and he will continue to be, a simple minded brainwashed jihadist terrorist the rest of his life. Any reasonable person can only come to that conclusion. So, why did the judge say what she said?
There can only be three possibilities; she is not a reasonable person and doesn’t see Shahzad for what he really is, or she is being politically correct hoping not to offend Muslims by putting this creep away, or she is totally clueless about what the Koran and Islam is all about. You can decide for yourself; but personally I think she is a lot of all three. If you don’t agree with me that she was confused by all three possibilities, then there is only one conclusion you can come to; she is totally clueless concerning Muslims and the Koran. She has no idea that the Koran explicitly teaches that Islam is to dominate by any means possible even if it means to KILL THE INFIDEL; which is exactly what Shahzad intended to do.
Judge listen to me now, Shahzad needs to get in touch with the true God of the universe, he needs to seek forgiveness of his sins, he needs to recognize his need for a savior that can bring about salvation and not one that promises 72 virgins for an eternal life of sex. Shahzad needs to come to grips with who he really is before it is too late; otherwise he will come before the ultimate justice system and be condemned to an eternity of hell; a hell much worse than the hell he intended for his victims.
Have A Great Day
Skandalon